439
FXUS61 KILN 211650
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1150 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING.
SLIGHT INCREASE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. INCREASED CONFIDENCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL - ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-71 SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT WINTERY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
2) VERY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
9:55 AM UPDATE...
THE INITIAL ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END FOR THE
ADVISORY AREA, AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
5:48 AM UPDATE...
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET - A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN
HAS DEVELOPED IN THE REGION OF FAVORED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS SHOWS THIS PCPN
STREAKING NORTHEAST ACROSS ILN/S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL BE LIGHT - THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN (ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET)
WILL LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 11 AM...
PREVIOUS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THERE WILL BE A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE.
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
STRENGTHENS TO 55-60 KTS. IN WARM ADVECTION FLOW, WIND GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING BUT FORCING LEADS TO SATURATION AND
PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX IN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA, MAINLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS,
SUGGESTING SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED, AND DOES NOT COINCIDE
WITH THE DGZ FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A STRONG
(1050) CANADIAN HIGH WILL SINK DOWN INTO CONUS BRINGING A POTENT
POLAR AIRMASS TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL, WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS STRAIGHT. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE TIMEFRAME IS
FORECAST TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXACT NUMBERS MAY STILL
CHANGE, BUT BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT PAINTING
WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT OVERNIGHT
FRAME.
IN ADDITION TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS COMING WEEKEND, A
VERY ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS FAR NORTH AS
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. A TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME, WE'LL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A POTENT JET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT.
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR NORTHERN KENTUCKY/ SOUTHERN OHIO
COUNTIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT P-
TYPE WILL BE SNOW, GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, IT IS
STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO BE LOOKING AT ACCUMULATION AND CAUTION SHOULD
BE EXERCISED WITH ANY SNOWFALL MAPS POSTED THIS EARLY OUT. FOR
EXAMPLE, IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS PAINTED
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES TO 8-11 INCHES OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN RUNS. WILD SWINGS LIKE THIS OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME
INDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND UNPREDICTABILITY. THINKING REMAINS
THE SAME IN THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS STILL TO BE ANSWERED ARE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH CAN BE TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO OUR AREA,
OVERALL STORM TRACK, AND TIMING/ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THEN OF
COURSE, ONCE WE NAIL DOWN THESE DETAILS A BIT MORE, WE WILL BEGIN TO
LOOK CLOSER AT SLRS, SNOWFALL RATES, DEPTH OF THE DGZ AND MORE. MUCH
STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SIGNAL FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST FOR THE COMING WORKING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A DROP TO IFR IS
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION,
GUSTY SSW WINDS (UP TO 30 KNOTS) WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WELL. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MVFR CEILINGS BREAKING TO
VFR AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE WILL NOT LIKELY BE ANY
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE OVERNIGHT / EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY FOR KDAY/KCMH/KLCK, UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS, ARE THEN EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/HATZOS/AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
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