996
FXUS61 KILN 211837
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
THOUGH IT HAS TAKEN SOME TIME, PARTICULARLY WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
THE DAY IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING -- WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL
STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA, BUT THIS SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW -- LITTLE
IF ANY RISK FOR ANYTHING HAZARDOUS.
HAVE SEEN SOME 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONE ITEM TO WATCH
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE 04Z-10Z TIME FRAME, SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO W, WITH SOME
STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS WINDS ALOFT ALSO
INCREASE. THERE MAY BE A POCKET OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT, FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE ILN CWA. HAVE
INCREASED GUSTS IN THE FORECAST. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
40-45 MPH GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN ONE OR TWO TIERS OF ILN
COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
VERY COLD CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED IN NRN OH WILL BREAK DOWN ON
SATURDAY. EAST WINDS WILL INHIBIT DEEP SATURATION OF THE COLUMN
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS VIEWED FROM A CINCY-PORTSMOUTH
LINE. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT SHOULD
BEGIN OVER A NARROW PERIOD OF TIME LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY SAT
EVENING. A STEADY SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL TN THROUGH THE OH/WV
BORDER.
ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN DRIVER OF HEAVY SNOW IN THIS SYSTEM IS
FOUND AT H850 WHERE A CUTOFF LOW NEAR MO/AR AT 06Z SUN REACHES OH/IN
BY 18Z SUN. THIS APPROACH BRINGS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT
ON SSW WINDS, THEN WRINGS IT OUT IN RAPID FASHION SAT-SUN. SNOWFALL
RATES OF OVER 1"/HR ARE GOING TO BE LIKELY LATE SAT, FAVORED IN
SRN/SE 1/3 OF CWA.
WINTER SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT'S PROMPTING THE WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL BRING A WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN CWA AND AT LEAST
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER. PER COLLABORATION WITH WPC
AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, HAVE ISSUED A WATCH FROM SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
FOR SRN 1/3 OF CWA, WHERE 4" IS NOTED ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR,
RAMPING UP AS YOU MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 6"+.
TIMING SHOWS A RAPID PRECIP CUTOFF BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK
MON. THERE IS A VERY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CHANGES IN TRACK/STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE ARCTIC NATURE OF THE AIR SNOW WILL BE
GENERATED IN, SWE WILL BE VERY HIGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE FLUFFY
AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPER SNOWPACK. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE TEENS.
FOR FRIDAY AM, AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING IN THE START OF THE VERY
COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS, AND WILL GET COLDER FROM THERE. FOR SATURDAY AM, WITH
A GENERALLY SUSTAINED 8-12 MPH WIND, APPARENT TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO AREA-WIDE, BELOW -10 FROM COLUMBUS TO CINCY AND THEN NWD
THROUGH EASTERN IN. THIS IS JUST WARMER BY ABOUT 5-10 DEG THAN OUR
GUIDANCE FOR ISSUING AN EXTREME COLD WARNING, SO HEADLINES MAY ALSO
BE NECESSARY TO HEAP ONTO SATURDAY'S FORECAST. VERY COLD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A DROP TO IFR IS
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION,
GUSTY SSW WINDS (UP TO 30 KNOTS) WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WELL. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MVFR CEILINGS BREAKING TO
VFR AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE WILL NOT LIKELY BE ANY
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE OVERNIGHT / EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY FOR KDAY/KCMH/KLCK, UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS, ARE THEN EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OHZ073-078>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR INZ075-080.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS/FRANKS
AVIATION...HATZOS
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