237
FXUS61 KILN 212332
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
632 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
2) ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.
HAVE SEEN SOME 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONE ITEM TO WATCH
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE 04Z-10Z TIME FRAME, SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO W, WITH SOME
STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AS WINDS ALOFT ALSO
INCREASE. THERE MAY BE A POCKET OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT, FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE ILN CWA. HAVE
INCREASED GUSTS IN THE FORECAST. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
40-45 MPH GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN ONE OR TWO TIERS OF ILN
COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
VERY COLD CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED IN NRN OH WILL BREAK DOWN ON
SATURDAY. EAST WINDS WILL INHIBIT DEEP SATURATION OF THE COLUMN
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS VIEWED FROM A CINCY-PORTSMOUTH
LINE. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PRECEDE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT SHOULD
BEGIN OVER A NARROW PERIOD OF TIME LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY SAT
EVENING. A STEADY SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL TN THROUGH THE OH/WV
BORDER.
ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN DRIVER OF HEAVY SNOW IN THIS SYSTEM IS
FOUND AT H850 WHERE A CUTOFF LOW NEAR MO/AR AT 06Z SUN REACHES OH/IN
BY 18Z SUN. THIS APPROACH BRINGS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT
ON SSW WINDS, THEN WRINGS IT OUT IN RAPID FASHION SAT-SUN. SNOWFALL
RATES OF OVER 1"/HR ARE GOING TO BE LIKELY LATE SAT, FAVORED IN
SRN/SE 1/3 OF CWA.
WINTER SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT'S PROMPTING THE WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL BRING A WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN CWA AND AT LEAST
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER. PER COLLABORATION WITH WPC
AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, HAVE ISSUED A WATCH FROM SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
FOR SRN 1/3 OF CWA, WHERE 4" IS NOTED ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR,
RAMPING UP AS YOU MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 6"+.
TIMING SHOWS A RAPID PRECIP CUTOFF BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK
MON. THERE IS A VERY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CHANGES IN TRACK/STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE ARCTIC NATURE OF THE AIR SNOW WILL BE
GENERATED IN, SWE WILL BE VERY HIGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE FLUFFY
AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPER SNOWPACK. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE TEENS.
FOR FRIDAY AM, AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING IN THE START OF THE VERY
COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS, AND WILL GET COLDER FROM THERE. FOR SATURDAY AM, WITH
A GENERALLY SUSTAINED 8-12 MPH WIND, APPARENT TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO AREA-WIDE, BELOW -10 FROM COLUMBUS TO CINCY AND THEN NWD
THROUGH EASTERN IN. THIS IS JUST WARMER BY ABOUT 5-10 DEG THAN OUR
GUIDANCE FOR ISSUING AN EXTREME COLD WARNING, SO HEADLINES MAY ALSO
BE NECESSARY TO HEAP ONTO SATURDAY'S FORECAST. VERY COLD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY
06Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING. BUT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. IN ADDITION TO WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST,
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS. WINDS WILL THEN
SETTLE DOWN, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...SNOW AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OHZ073-078>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR INZ075-080.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS/HATZOS
AVIATION...
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