014
FXUS61 KILN 220707
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
207 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS AND EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
2) SNOW LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
3) COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PRE DAWN
HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO WEST. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. IN THE BETTER MIXING
BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK OR SO.
KEY MESSAGE 2) SNOW LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. SNOWFALL CHANCES INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND
SLOWLY DECLINE ON SUNDAY. EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER, AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING DUE TO A MULTITUDE OF
REASONS. FIRST OFF, VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL NEED TO SURGE POLEWARD IN ORDER FOR
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR WHICH CAN BE DIFFICULT WITH A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH IN PLACE. WITH THAT SAID, MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHEN 850HPA WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE IS UNCERTAIN. SECOND, THE AMPLITUDE
AND EXACT TRACK OF THE 850HPA DISTURBANCE ARE NOT RESOLVED AND THESE
WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VIA FRONTOGENETIC
INTERACTIONS ALOFT. LASTLY, THE STATISTICAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN FAR FROM A CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THESE METEOROLOGICAL AND
STATISTICAL UNCERTAINTIES, THE FORECAST IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
KEY MESSAGE 3) COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE PERIODS OF TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. CURRENTLY,
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, AND
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COLDEST
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...SNOW AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL/JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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