792
FXUS61 KILN 221805
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
105 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN NORTHWEST CWA FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
2) SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND.
3) COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE WORST FOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
APPARENT TEMPERATURE BELOW -10 FRIDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST 1/4 OF
CWA. WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY, WIND WILL DECREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON, PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF -10. ACROSS THE REGION, FALLING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY OCCURRING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2) SNOW LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. SNOWFALL CHANCES INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND
SLOWLY DECLINE ON SUNDAY. EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER, AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING DUE TO A MULTITUDE OF
REASONS. FIRST OFF, VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL NEED TO SURGE POLEWARD IN ORDER FOR
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR WHICH CAN BE DIFFICULT WITH A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH IN PLACE. WITH THAT SAID, MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHEN 850HPA WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE IS UNCERTAIN. SECOND, THE AMPLITUDE
AND EXACT TRACK OF THE 850HPA DISTURBANCE ARE NOT RESOLVED AND THESE
WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VIA FRONTOGENETIC
INTERACTIONS ALOFT. LASTLY, THE STATISTICAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN FAR FROM A CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THESE METEOROLOGICAL AND
STATISTICAL UNCERTAINTIES, THE FORECAST IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
KEY MESSAGE 3) COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE PERIODS OF TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. CURRENTLY,
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, AND
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COLDEST
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIND WILL BE DYING DOWN SOME THIS EVENING, MORE NOTABLY IN THE SOUTH
AT CVG/LUK/ILN WHERE IT SHOULD DROP BELOW 10KT. OTHERWISE, WINDS
CHANGING TO NW AT 10-15KT, MORE SUSTAINED THAN GUSTS, WITH HIGH CIGS
LOWERING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT, REMAINING ABOVE 10KFT.
OUTLOOK...SNOW AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>044.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS/CAMPBELL/JGL
AVIATION...FRANKS
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