461
FXUS61 KILN 232328
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
628 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE FORECAST FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
ADDED CHANCE OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BEGINNING SATURDAY WILL BRING HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
3) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
4) SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A VERY COLD AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION, WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION TODAY. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH
VALUES NEAR -10F ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BEGINNING SATURDAY WILL
BRING HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WINTER STORM
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE A LONG-DURATION EVENT
OF HEAVY SNOWFALL, WITH 8-12 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
SNOWFALL IS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS INITIAL
ROUND OF SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT,
WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE THERE IS SOMEWHAT
OF A LULL IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS SUNDAY, A MUCH MORE
FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENVELOP THE ILN CWA, PRODUCING THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
ONE OF THE MAIN COMPLICATIONS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, AS WARM AIR ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE 12Z MODELS, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING MIXED PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE ILN CWA, AND OTHERS KEEPING IT JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HISTORICALLY, THIS KIND OF THING TENDS TO OCCUR AND MAY NOT BE PICKED
UP ON BY ALL OF THE MODELS WELL IN ADVANCE. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY BY INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE
FORECAST AS FAR NORTH AS CINCINNATI AND CHILLICOTHE, BUT THE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD SMALL AMOUNTS
OF ICE, AND REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS BY AROUND AN INCH, IN LOCATIONS SUCH
AS LEWIS COUNTY KY AND SCIOTO COUNTY OH. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW IN CONFIDENCE, AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WHERE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALL SNOW, THE
LONG DURATION COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE RATES AND SNOW RATIOS
WILL ENABLE THIS EVENT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOME LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE 10+ INCHES OF SNOW, THOUGH THE EXACT SWATH OF HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS IS NOT YET CLEAR. FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ILN CWA (NORTH OF
DAYTON) AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER, BUT ABOVE THE 6 INCH
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THAT AREA.
REGARDLESS OF ANY POTENTIAL CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, OR SLIGHTLY LESSER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, OVERALL THIS
WILL BE AN EVENT THAT WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS -- MAINLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN WHEN SNOW ENDS, THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE CLEANUP DIFFICULT, SO TRAVEL TROUBLES WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON MONDAY.
3) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AT ANY POINT. MIN
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, AND BELOW ZERO TUESDAY MORNING, WILL
EXACERBATE THE HAZARDS FROM THIS COLD. AS OF NOW, WIND CHILLS APPEAR
TO BE THE COLDEST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES GETTING AS
LOW AS -10F TO -20F. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG WINDS WILL
BE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW COLD THE
VALUES GET, AND THERE MAY BE SOME ROOM TO DROP FURTHER -- ESPECIALLY
IF THE MODELS ARE UNDER-DOING THE MIN TEMPS AFTER THE SNOW PACK IS IN
PLACE.
4) SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH VERY COLD AIR STILL
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, SNOW SNOW MAY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DISTANCE, BUT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. A 4-6KFT DECK WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA AFTER 18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP INTO THE CINCINNATI
TERMINALS BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST
NORTHEAST AND FALL BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH CONSIDERABLE
ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS
AVIATION...
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