905
FXUS61 KILN 241717
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1217 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO MIXED PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MINOR
TWEAKS TO SNOW AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOWFALL LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
2) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
3) SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO NO SIGNIFICANTS
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP UP INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A TAD SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET SO
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIMING. FORCING
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WILL THIS INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN AND IT WILL BE
MOVING INTO A DRIER, ARCTIC AIRMASS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS, SLRS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE SO THIS SHOULD HELP SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BE A BIT MORE EFFICIENT. SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH OR SO ACROSS OUR NORTH TO
2-3 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.
VERY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW
FOR FORCING TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVERSPREADING OUR AREA AS A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL PULL SOME WARMER AIR NORTHWARD TOWARD
OUR AREA. HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF MIXED PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, BRINGING SOME
SLEET AND PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST AREAS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SINCE MODELS OFTEN TEND TO
UNDERDO THE NORTHERN PUSH OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT, WILL HEDGE WITH A
MIX A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS.
THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME LOWERING IN THE SLRS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PCPN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA AS A DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP BEFORE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
GENERALLY EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 8 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL OF COURSE BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH OF A MIX DEVELOPS, SO AMOUNTS MAY BE A TAD ON
THE HIGH SIDE THERE. WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH
AN AXIS OF A FOOT OR SO SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE MIXED PCPN, MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-71
CORRIDOR.
2) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MULTIPLE
PERIODS OF TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO
ARE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING MAY BE AS LOW AS -10F TO
-20F WHICH COULD END UP BEING THE COLDEST MORNING OF THIS STRETCH.
3)SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING, ANY SNOW THAT MAY OCCUR WOULD STICK AND CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS. HOWEVER, DRY AIR IS PLACE AND FORECAST QPF IS MINIMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP AND LOWER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING INTO MVFR CATEGORY. THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
THROUGH THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR WITH CONSIDERABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL/JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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