117
FXUS61 KILN 242332
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
632 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW COLD WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
DECREASED SNOW AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND INCREASED ICE AMOUNTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOWFALL LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY IN
OHIO.
2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOWFALL LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY IN
OHIO.
COLD CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE SYSTEM, STARTING
TO SEE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR, HOWEVER NEAREST OBSERVATIONS REPORTING
SNOW ARE STILL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL START TO SEE SNOWFALL REACHING THE
GROUND. SNOW WILL START TO PICK UP ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALMOST ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, START
TO DECREASE BY EVENING, AND THEN TAPER OFF MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION, WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO SOUTHERN OHIO FOR PART OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
HERE ARE THE PARTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT ARE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL VALUES. BANDING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, A LONG DURATION OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED, AND THERE IS A LOT OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL VALUES THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 71.
HERE ARE THE PARTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL
VALUES. THE SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT COULD
BE. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY REGION AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY THERE IS SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT
COULD CAUSE MELTING ALOFT. WHILE THERE IS COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE,
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE EXACT TYPE OF SNOWFLAKE THAT WILL OCCUR
AND HOW EASILY THAT TYPE OF SNOWFLAKE WILL ACCUMULATE. THIS MELTING
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL LOWER SNOWFALL VALUES IN THESE
LOCATIONS AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AS
THERE IS A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE SOME WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WHILE NO EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, SOME BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK WITH THE SNOWPACK AND COLD
CONDITIONS.
THIS IS A VERY LARGE AND HAZARDOUS STORM SYSTEM. PLEASE BE CAREFUL
AND TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.
2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ANOMALOUSLY-EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
CENTERED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/WS PROVIDING REINFORCING SHOTS OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY REGIONS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR AN EXPANSIVE AND
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY, WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGES ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS IS ESPECIALLY NOTABLE GIVEN THAT WE AT
PRETTY MUCH AT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM IN DAILY AVERAGE TEMPS,
MEANING THAT THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE.
NUMEROUS DAYS WILL FEATURE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO, WITH
HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE TEENS TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES THROUGH
FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR EVEN LOWER, WITH OVERALL WIND CHILLS FAVORED TO
STAY NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. AT THIS
JUNCTURE, THE COLD SPELL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE WEEK, WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THE COLD WITH NEW HEADLINES FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. HAVE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THEN AN EXTREME COLD WATCH
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD HEADLINES
MIGHT BE NEEDED DURING THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SNOW HAS BEGUN AT MOST SITES THIS EVENING WITH CMH/LCK THE LAST TO
SATURATE. THE BAND OF SNOW OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR IS BIT MORE INTENSE
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED SO THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS HAS BEEN
MOVED UP FOR DAY. CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT AS BANDS OF SNOW EXPAND OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. LIFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. EXPECT THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THE TAF SITES TO BE SNOW. SOME BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF AS WIND GUSTS INCREASE UP TO AND
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
MVFR. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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