320
FXUS61 KILN 250558
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS. RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS
AN INCH OR SO ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND LOWERED
THEM AN INCH OR SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION.
2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BANDING SETS UP SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS HOW
FAR NORTH THE MIXED PCPN WILL MAKE IT LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE 00Z HI-RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT, BRINGING IT AS FAR NORTH AS AN OWEN COUNTY TO PIKE COUNTY
LINE. WILL RUN WITH THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF IT ENDS UP MAKING IT A BIT FARTHER NORTH JUST BASED ON PAST
EXPERIENCE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MIXED PCPN LINE, WILL CONTINUE TO TREND A
LITTLE LOWER ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND UP ON ICE ACCUMS A BIT. MEANWHILE,
TO THE NORTH OF THIS MIXED LINE, EXPECT TO SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
TOTALS, LIKELY SETTING UP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. HREF
MEAN SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP INTO 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER HOUR RANGE FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A
LINGERING DEFORMATION BAND THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING.
HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 10-14 INCH BAND RUNNING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA, SO WILL
NUDGE UP STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ACCORDINGLY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW ONCE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF.
2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS THANKS
TO REPEATED SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR AND A DEEP SNOWPACK. MULTIPLE NIGHTS
FEATURE TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO/BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO. TUESDAY MORNING MAY END UP FEATURING THE COLDEST WIND
CHILLS DUE TO THE COMBO OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
WIND CHILLS BELOW -15 ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO HAVE THE COLDEST
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES, BUT CALMER WINDS KEEP THE WIND CHILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THE THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH IFR TO VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS PREVAILING. SNOW WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH IFR VSBYS
THIS AFTERNOON IMPROVING TO MVFR THIS EVENING. SOME BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WIND GUSTS INCREASE UP TO
AND AROUND 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL/JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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