822
FXUS61 KILN 260214
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
914 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAINTAINED THE WINTER STORM WARNING EVEN THOUGH MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL
HAS COME TO AN END.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
2) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) EVENING UPDATE...
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING WINDS, ROAD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLURRIES AND BLOWING SNOW ARE
BEING OBSERVED THIS EVENING, EVEN THOUGH GUSTS ARE NOT VERY FREQUENT.
GIVEN THE ONGOING IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA, THE WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
2) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THIS WEEK. THE LONGEVITY AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS PATTERN MAY
RIVAL SOME OF THE TOP-10 COLDEST/LONGEST STRETCHES ON RECORD ACROSS
THE AREA.
ANOMALOUSLY-EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
CENTERED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/WS PROVIDING REINFORCING SHOTS OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY REGIONS INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS, COMBINED WITH AN EXPANSIVE AND VERY DEEP SNOWPACK,
WHICH WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
ENSURES LONG STRETCHES OF DANGEROUS TO EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH INCREASED SW SFC FLOW INTO THE
MORNING, WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15F AND -25F. AS
SUCH, THERE IS NOW ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SETUP TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE LOCAL
AREA, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR/NORTH
OF I-70.
A SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR N DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, PROMPTING AN
INCREASE IN SFC FLOW OUT OF THE SW AND SOME GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-
25KTS. HOWEVER, THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS AGAIN GOING SUBZERO FOR MOST OF THE ILN FA AND
WIND CHILL VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN -10F AND -20F.
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, TEMPS
WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS INTO MID TEENS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE AGAIN DIPPING BELOW ZERO AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY.
DAILY MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES COLDER THAN -10F ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH SOME SIGNS OF
IMPROVING CIGS BEHIND THE CLEARING SNOW. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW. MVFR
CIGS AND VIS BREAK TO VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, BECOMING PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY BY 12Z MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR CVG, WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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