723
FXUS61 KILN 282311
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
611 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MORE COUNTIES TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
2) SEVERAL CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
CLOUDS THAT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING AS A SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW 0 AGAIN EXCEPT IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, BUT THE COMBINATION WILL
ALLOW FOR WIND CHILL REACHING OR EXCEEDING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAVE EXPANDED THIS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THERE IS AN EVER SO SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
CHILL REACHING ADVISORY THRESHOLD ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER, AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS
RESULTS IN PROBABILITIES OF REACHING EXTREME COLD WARNING LEVELS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO 50 PERCENT OR GREATER. THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RECORD COLD AIR TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THAT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
FEWER POSSIBILITIES.
WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST PARTS
OF THE FORECAST, BITTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY WARMER, ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL, READINGS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2) SEVERAL CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
A MINOR PERTUBATION WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO KENTUCKY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A WEAK BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THAT WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SUITE
REGARDING THE TRACK THAT THIS WILL TAKE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES
THIS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE SOME RUNS THAT BRING THE
PRECIPITATION, WHICH WOULD BE SNOW, ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH WARRANTS LOW CHANCE POPS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT ROBUST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE MAY BE IN QUESTION WHICH IS RESULTING IN THE NBM ONLY
CARRYING 20 POP, ALTHOUGH CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ABOUT HALF OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS KEPT BRINGING ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL HAVE FINALLY BECOME
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE, A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PUSH
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
BRING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE TYPICAL
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. BUT AT THIS STAGE, IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR A MIX/CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CLOUDS ARE MOSTLY DISSIPATING, LEAVING VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, MAY DEVELOP -- ESPECIALLY
FOR KCVG/KLUK, BUT POSSIBLY ALSO AT KILN/KDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
LOW, AS THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT DO NOT SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP. FOR NOW, A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
INCLUDED, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO IFR VALUES IF IT LOOKS
LIKE THE FOG IS GOING TO DEVELOP.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH SOME AFTERNOON
MVFR CEILINGS AT KCMH/KLCK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082.
KY...NONE.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...HATZOS
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