530
FXUS61 KILN 290614
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
114 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE LOWS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
2) SEVERAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE ENTIRE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE A FEW SPOTS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEK. SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES EVERY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY HIGH DURING THIS TIME, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
BE EVEN COOLER AND WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH CRITERIA FOR COLD
HEADLINES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BORDERLINE AND THEREFORE AFTER
COLLABORATION, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON COLD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
CONTINUED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
DAYTIME HOURS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE, HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) SEVERAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW.
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. A SYSTEM MOVING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS MORE VARIABILITY, HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THESE SYSTEMS TO SEE IF ANY
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WITH TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE MODEL
RUNS HAVE INDICATED THAT VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE
STARTED, CONDITIONS ARE STILL P6SM. DUE TO THIS AND WITH SOME
INCOMING CLOUDS, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT.
GOING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS, SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL INDICATIONS THAT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT ONLY LIMITED TO MVFR VSBYS AT THE LONGER KCVG
TAF. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF KCVG AND KLUK TAF SITES
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SNOW WILL STAY SOUTH
OF THE TAF SITES AND THEREFORE KEPT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082.
KY...NONE.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-
059.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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