363
FXUS61 KILN 291824
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
124 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
2) A FEW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
STILL LOOKING AT A SLIGHTLY LESS COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
WIND. THUS, APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT
DO, THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO PROMPT ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING RECORD
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY. WHILE PROBABILITIES OF
APPARENT TEMPERATURES REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME
FRAME HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY, IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN EXCESSIVE COLD WATCH.
AFTER THAT TIME, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER GRADUAL LESSENING OF THE
COLD. ANOTHER ADVISORY IS VERY POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT THRESHOLD AT THAT TIME ARE GREATER THAN
75 PERCENT.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL REMAIN NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, IT
WILL END ANY EXCESSIVE COLD HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A FEW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW.
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT, BUT TRENDS ARE FOR ANY SNOW TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE 10 PERCENT AT MOST, ALTHOUGH REFS IS
AROUND 20 PERCENT.
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ON MONDAY. SHORT WAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE LIFT. HOWEVER, THIS LIFT WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS REFLECTED IN MODEL PRECIPITATION
BECOMING LIGHTER/LESS COVERAGE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS ARE MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THAN THE RATHER
PALTRY NBM. EVEN THE DRIEST CLUSTER, COMPRISED MOSTLY OF ECMWF
MEMBERS, SUGGESTS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. IF
THIS CONTINUES, WOULD EXPECT NBM POPS TO TREND UPWARD WITH TIME.
INCREASING SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WITH SPEED AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. NBM CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS STAGE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COLDER, SO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS DECREASED LEAVING PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS MOSTLY
ABOVE 3KFT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
KDAY. THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT AT THE COLUMBUS
TERMINALS BUT STAY VFR. OUTSIDE OF AREAS WITH THESE CLOUDS, IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP IN
MIST. THE BETTER CHANCE IS AT KLUK AND THUS IS THE ONLY TAF WITH THAT
RESTRICTION. STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT HAVE KEPT THOSE CLOUDS IN VFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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