591
FXUS61 KILN 292308
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
608 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
2) A FEW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
STILL LOOKING AT A SLIGHTLY LESS COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
WIND. THUS, APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT
DO, THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO PROMPT ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING RECORD
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY. WHILE PROBABILITIES OF
APPARENT TEMPERATURES REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD DURING THIS TIME
FRAME HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY, IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN EXCESSIVE COLD WATCH.
AFTER THAT TIME, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER GRADUAL LESSENING OF THE
COLD. ANOTHER ADVISORY IS VERY POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT THRESHOLD AT THAT TIME ARE GREATER THAN
75 PERCENT.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL REMAIN NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, IT
WILL END ANY EXCESSIVE COLD HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A FEW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW.
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT, BUT TRENDS ARE FOR ANY SNOW TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE 10 PERCENT AT MOST, ALTHOUGH REFS IS
AROUND 20 PERCENT.
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ON MONDAY. SHORT WAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE LIFT. HOWEVER, THIS LIFT WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS REFLECTED IN MODEL PRECIPITATION
BECOMING LIGHTER/LESS COVERAGE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS ARE MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THAN THE RATHER
PALTRY NBM. EVEN THE DRIEST CLUSTER, COMPRISED MOSTLY OF ECMWF
MEMBERS, SUGGESTS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. IF
THIS CONTINUES, WOULD EXPECT NBM POPS TO TREND UPWARD WITH TIME.
INCREASING SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WITH SPEED AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. NBM CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS STAGE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COLDER, SO THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS DECREASED LEAVING PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH SRN PARTS OF
THE REGION, A BORDERLINE MFVR/VFR STRATOCU DECK DRAPED ACROSS THE N
NEAR KCMH/KLCK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT S/SW THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH CLEARER
SKIES EXPECTED FOR NRN SITES OF KCMH/KLCK/KDAY TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER,
SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN VFR STRATOCU WILL SPROUT ABOUT AGAIN AREA-WIDE
BY THE AFTERNOON, PERSISTING WITH SCT/BKN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 5KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z BEFORE
INCREASING SUBTLY INTO THE AFTERNOON TO 8-10KTS. NORTHERLY WIND WILL
SUBSIDE AGAIN TOWARD 00Z AND BEYOND.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC
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