685
FXUS61 KILN 302245
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
545 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. RESULTANT LOWER APPARENT
TEMPERATURE LED TO AN UPGRADE TO EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR PART OF THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
2) A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
TRICKY TEMPERATURE/APPARENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS
SINKING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN
ERODING, ALTHOUGH EXPECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THAT REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN A MORE SOLID DECK OF CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET DURING
CLEAR PERIODS, BUT PERIODS OF CLOUDS WILL ACT AS SOMETHING OF A
LIMIT. IN ADDITION, A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO BECOME QUITE LIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. MEANWHILE, HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL ALSO HAVE
SOME LIMITING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE DROP.
WHILE IT IS THREADING THE NEEDLE A BIT, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AXIS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HAVE LIMITED CLOUDS AS WELL AS KEEPING SOME WIND. THIS BROUGHT
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO EXTREME COLD WARNING RANGE. HREF
PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER THAN 60% OF REACHING THAT THRESHOLD. THUS
HAVE UPGRADED PART OF THE AREA. THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WIND CHILL TO NOT BE QUITE THIS COLD IF THE CLOUD FORECAST IS
OFF. GREATEST CONFIDENCE, WHERE APPARENT TEMPERATURES IS FURTHEST
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD, IS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD ON SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIND. DO NOT EXPECT TO FLIRT WITH WARNING
THRESHOLD THAT NIGHT, BUT HREF PROBABILITY OF REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS ARE 60 TO 90 PERCENT. SO THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
ANOTHER COLD HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, RELATIVELY SPEAKING SINCE READINGS WILL
STILL BE A GOOD DEAL BELOW NORMAL. BUT THIS WILL BRING TO AN END THE
WEEK OF EXTREME COLD.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW.
DISJOINTED SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY IN ADDITION TO THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES,
ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE (LIQUID) PRECIPITATION REMAIN
QUITE LOW. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR.
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
PASSES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS HAS BEEN NARROWING, LEADING
TO SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST (CONDITIONAL)
ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS DOES *NOT* LOOK LIKE A
REPEAT OF LAST WEEKEND'S STORM IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL.
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT, FOR THAT FAR OUT IN TIME, THAT A CLIPPER
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BRING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FEW/SCT VFR STRATOCU NEAR NRN TERMINALS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SOME CIRRUS STREAMS
ACROSS SE PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME CIRRUS, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE FROM ABOUT 02Z-10Z BEFORE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS OVERSPREAD AGAIN FROM THE N TOWARD DAYBREAK AND BEYOND.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z-15Z
AND PERSISTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE INCREASING PAST 15Z TO AROUND 10KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE NW AT AROUND 5KTS PAST 00Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ034-035-074-
081-082-088.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>073-077>080.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC
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