342
FXUS61 KILN 310726
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
226 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SYSTEMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
2) A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES THIS WEEKEND AT TIMES. CONTINUED THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AND
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH WITH
THIS SNOW PACK AND COLD PATTERN TO HAVE TEMPERATURES DROP TO
CRITERIA. WHILE SOME LOCATIONS MAY RISE ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND FRIDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW.
WHILE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH
THE MODELS. THE ONE PART THAT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IS THAT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION HAVE A GREATER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. CONTINUED TO GO WITH WPC FOR QPF. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS SHOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO MENTION IN THE HWO,
HOWEVER DID NOT GET CAUGHT UP WITH THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM QUITE
YET WITH AS MUCH VARIABILITY THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS OFTEN OVERPERFORM ON SNOWFALL VALUES AND
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. ALSO MENTIONED THIS FEATURE IN THE HWO.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOME CLOUDS REMAIN NEAR KCVG AND KLUK. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MORESO FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. A FEW WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME JUST INCREASE WINDS
DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AT KDAY THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS DEVELOP AND HOW MUCH FOG THERE WILL BE DURING THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DURING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ034-035-074-081-
082-088.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ026-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>073-077>080.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ089>100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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