302
FXUS61 KILN 311753
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1253 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIGHT SNOW PROBABILITY DECREASED AND SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON
TUESDAY/NIGHT. THIS RESULTED IN EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN
INCH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
2) PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH BEST
CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY, THEN TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT PRODUCE A HIGH-
CONFIDENCE THAW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE
REMAINS RATHER DRY. HOWEVER, HAVE CONTINUED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SINCE IT WON'T TAKE MUCH MOISTURE
AND LIFT IN THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH ON OUR LATEST MODEL RUNS, SO COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REDUCED...
NOW WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH A FOCUS OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS
FAR AS POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ALSO WIND AND
REINFORCED ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PESKY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. CLOUDS COVERAGE WILL DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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