755
FXUS61 KILN 091843
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
143 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
2) WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.
3) PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN EXPECT SNOW MELT TO
ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
THESE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCING NORTH AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT
PIVOTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REVOLVES AROUND THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND HOW LOW VISIBILITIES GO.
HREF SHOWS 40 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN 1/4 MILE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS THE AREA THAT
HAS THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF HAVING PUBLIC IMPACTS DUE TO THE
REDUCED VISIBILITY. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT TODAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER/MID 30S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE LATITUDINAL SPREAD ON THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ICON/CANADIAN MODELS
ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH AND GFS IS THE MOST SOUTH - WITH THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BETWEEN. WITH SO MUCH SPREAD AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH HAS BEEN
LOOKED AT WITH THE NBM SHOWING A 30 TO 40+ PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH
OR MORE QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE TRACK WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT IS OBSERVED FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES FOR MORE
DETAILS IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A BAND OF
VFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 5000-7000 FEET WILL SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT JUST HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND IFR CEILINGS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BECOME
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST THREAT LOOKS TO AFFECT KCVG AND KLUK OVERNIGHT
AND THEN SPREAD NORTH TUESDAY. HAVE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
IFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
A PERIOD OF LLWS ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 45KTS IS ALSO EXPECTED
BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z-16Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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