182
FXUS61 KILN 101439
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
939 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT. TIMING OF CLOUD ARRIVAL IS LATER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
UPDATE (939 AM):
SOME SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, LARGELY BASED ON ELEVATION. CVG HAS BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN LUK (40F VS 25F AT 9AM) AND THE KY MESONET SITES
IN MASON COUNTY (41F AT 925AM) AND LEWIS COUNTY (21F AT 925AM) HAVE
SHOWN A 20 DEGREE SPREAD. IN BOTH CASES, THE WARMER SITE IS ATOP A
RIDGE, AND THE WARMER SITE IS IN A VALLEY.
EVENTUALLY, THIS SHARP INVERSION WILL ERODE, LEADING TO MORE UNIFORM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT RAP/HRRR RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR TODAY, AND THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE FULL
SUN BEING OBSERVED OVER THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME THICK LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT APPEARS
THIS MAY OCCUR A COUPLE HOURS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, LEADING
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF INSOLATION. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ILN CWA COULD HIT 60 DEGREES TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (114 AM):
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH HELD BACK SOME BY THE SNOWPACK, WILL RISE IN A
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. THE
SECONDARY IMPACT OF THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COLD GROUND IS
THAT STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP STARTING LATER THIS
MORNING. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS CAUSE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET
OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. EITHER WAY, IT APPEARS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CAUSE THEM TO THIN AND SCATTER TO
SOME DEGREE.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST IN PROGRESSIVE, ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF PWATS EXCEEDING AN
INCH REMAIN LOW, THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL TO
APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL. IT
WILL DEPEND BOTH ON THE QPF AND ALSO ANY REMAINING LIQUID CURRENTLY
LOCKED IN THE SNOWPACK.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR BY MIDDAY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COLD SNOW-
COVERED GROUND. MODEL TIMING VARIES AND SO DOES THE CLOUD BASE AND
VISIBILITY. DESPITE HIGH HREF PROBABILITIES FOR FOG, THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE STILL LEANS TOWARD IFR CEILINGS WITH LESS SURFACE-BASED
OBSCURATION. WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS ISSUANCE AND TIME THE ONSET OF
STRATUS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.
AFTER THE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING, IT APPEARS SOME PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS (MVFR BASES) WILL
SETTLE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION.../HATZOS
AVIATION...
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