132
FXUS61 KILN 102323
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
623 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.
2) PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) WARM CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT.
ROBUST SSW FLOW HAS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, AT LEAST ONCE THE INVERSION HAS
BROKEN -- WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW FOR LOW-LYING VALLEY LOCATIONS. DESPITE
THIS, CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP, AND IT MAY BE ANOTHER FEW
HOURS BEFORE LOW CLOUDS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
BUT THIS WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ILN CWA.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ON HRRR SOUNDINGS, ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER, BUT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA. ADDED THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF LEWIS KY / SCIOTO OH.
IN THE NW FLOW TOMORROW, ONE OF THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
FORECAST IS REGARDING HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
WILL STICK AROUND. AS A RESULT, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOMORROW IS
ON THE LOWER SIDE OF CONFIDENCE, AND A CLOUDIER SOLUTION MAY RESULT
IN VALUES A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS, IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2) PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
A SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND THE NBM FOCUSES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THAT
AREA. INCREASED TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SO THAT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE STAYS RAIN INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN SINCE THERE
IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT AND STILL A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT IN AREAS WHERE THE NBM IS CURRENTLY
GIVING FREEZING RAIN. DUE TO THIS DID NOT WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WHEN THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS LOW. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEREFORE FLOODING AT THIS TIME IS NOT A CONCERN AND THEREFORE LEFT
ANY MENTION OUT OF THE HWO.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD BUT WE WILL THEN LIKELY GET A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
MVFR STRATOCU WILL THEN DEVELOP IN THE CAA LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL
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