499
FXUS61 KILN 111139
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
2) ANOTHER WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
NW FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LOST A LOT OF THE SNOWPACK WITH TUESDAY'S
WARMTH, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL MELTING SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WITH
EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST
TO NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH TODAY IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THEN RELAX A BIT BY EVENING. SIMILAR DAYTIME HIGHS
OF LOW 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THURSDAY, WITH LOWS NEAR 20.
KEY MESSAGE 2) ANOTHER WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE
FOR RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A LONGER DURATION WARMUP, WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
MORE CLARITY FOR THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TO TRAVERSE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS TRENDING TOWARD A
MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION, THE BULK OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MORE
FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WHILE NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL, THE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.50
INCH OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY LITTLE
REMAINING SNOWPACK OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ALLOWS FOR
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT FLOOD ISSUES SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY
AS THE WORKWEEK BEGINS, WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY OF DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH BEGINNING MONDAY, BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST THE
PERSISTENT STRATUS WILL LINGER. HAVE REMOVED MVFR CIGS AT KCVG/KLUK,
NOW LEAVING IT TO SCATTERED. WITH NO STRATUS OVER THESE AREA, SEEING
MVFR VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS, SO BROUGHT THAT IN FOR KLUK.
FURTHER EAST TOWARD KCMH/KLCK, MVFR STRATUS MORE LIKELY TO LINGER
THERE.
GUSTY WINDS TO 25KTS TODAY IN THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH WINDS SLACKING OFF BY EVENING AND THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, HAVE BROUGHT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR
KILN/KCVG/KLUK AND EVEN KDAY WITH ALL THE RECENTLY MELTED SNOW MAKING
FOR WET SURFACE CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE PRETTY LOW IN IFR VSBYS, BUT
WITH KLUK BEING THE BEST CHANCE. FOR NOW, HANDLED THIS VIA A TEMPO 2
SM, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...JDR
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