260
FXUS61 KILN 131120
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
620 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY IN PHASE WITH
A CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM,
WHICH IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW WHICH
RESULTS IN A BIT MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE NORTHERN WAVE. THIS LEADS TO A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAT BRINGS LIFT AND THUS THE RAIN
SHIELD FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM THIS
OUTLIER, RAIN WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY, SOUTHEAST
INDIANA, AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
NBM QPF HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING A BIT FROM RUN TO RUN, BUT ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS ARE BEING PRETTY CONSISTENT IN RAINFALL PROBABILITIES OF 1/2
INCH OR MORE BEING NEGLIGIBLE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH A PRETTY
SHARP GRADIENT SOUTHWARDS ACROSS KENTUCKY. SNOW MELT IS ALREADY
WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA, SO BY THE TIME THIS RAIN MOVES IN, THERE WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOW MELT, ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RUNOFF
WILL BE EFFICIENT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS OR
EVEN A BIT OF NUISANCE FLOODING, BUT IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE
CHANCE OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING IS EXTREMELY LOW.
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONTINENT MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK NEAR THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL
MUCH TO BE RESOLVED IN TERMS OF DETAILS, BUT THIS DOES RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF MORE RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHEN TOWARDS MIDWEEK,
ALTHOUGH SOME ECMWF AND AIFS MEMBERS DO SAG A FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR, WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES END UP EVEN A LITTLE WARMER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST. GOING OLD SCHOOL, EXTENDED MOS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS TEND TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY HEADING OUT FURTHER IN TIME, SO
WHEN MOS IS FORECASTING MORE THAN 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEDNESDAY, IT IS SIGNIFICANT. NOT LOOKING AT REACHING RECORDS YET,
BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST TO START WILL DIMINISH BY 15Z. ANY
REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS WILL END EVEN EARLIER THAN THAT. VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND
THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT
LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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