513
FXUS61 KILN 131731
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
2) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
3) SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOME HEIGHT RISES
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY, IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS, BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM TEXAS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, WHICH MAY CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW, DEEP-LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND INTO PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE A NORTHWARD
LIMIT TO THE DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW, ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CLOSED 925MB/850MB HEIGHT CONTOURS, AND
PRECIPITATION WILL THUS BE LIMITED WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THERE
REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT IN A PRECIPITATION SHIELD
(WHICH SHOULD BE ALL RAIN) PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A
LITTLE LOWER FOR THE ILN CWA, WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS EXPECTING AROUND A HALF
INCH OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ILN CWA, WITH MUCH LOWER VALUES FOR THE
NORTHER ILN CWA, NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EVEN THE HIGHER END
OF THE PROBABILISTIC FORECAST RANGE IS STRUGGLING TO GET TO AN INCH
IN THE SOUTHERN ILN CWA, SO OVERALL, NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.
COMBINED WITH THE SNOW MELT, STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS MAY RISE A BIT,
BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH NOT SPECIFICALLY INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT, LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE COULD
STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SUNDAY WAVE, AND WILL MARK
THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE MONDAY, WITH MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND BEYOND. AS OF NOW,
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, THOUGH AT THIS DISTANCE IN THE
FORECAST THERE IS SOME ROOM FOR THIS TO CHANGE. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ALL HONESTY, THERE IS ROOM FOR
THESE FORECASTS TO INCREASE AS TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY DECREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 3) SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS NEXT WEEK.
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY, THE OVERALL STORM TRACK NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF
THE ILN CWA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FLOW WILL BECOME ACTIVE BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH ONE OR TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
BETWEEN THEN AND THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON TRACK, FORCING, AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FACTOR TO MENTION IS THAT WINDS WILL
PROBABLY BECOME GUSTY AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
STILL A LOT TO BE RESOLVED IN TERMS OF DETAILS, BUT SOME RAIN AND
INCREASED WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
WINDS REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
MVFR FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AS OF NOW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH RAIN. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS
AVIATION...HATZOS
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