331
FXUS61 KILN 141824
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
124 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
2) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
3) CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO SPILL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WAVE MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF
INTO A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEED OF THETA-E AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS ALREADY LEADING TO AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS FAR NORTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND PRECIPITATION (ALONG
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY) WILL SPREAD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH VALUES OF AROUND A
HALF INCH (PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE) FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ILN CWA, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE A SOLID SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST PROGRESSION,
AS DEFORMATION FORCING MAY ALLOW SOME BANDS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TONIGHT. ULTIMATELY, THE RAIN SHOULD
FILL IN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING
CONCERNS, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKING TO STAY UNDER AN INCH IN EVEN
THE HIGHER-END SOLUTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY
WAVE, AND WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE MONDAY, WITH MUCH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND BEYOND. AS OF
NOW, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, THOUGH AT THIS DISTANCE
IN THE FORECAST THERE IS SOME ROOM FOR THIS TO CHANGE. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY HAS INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE, AND VALUES ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY MAY AT LEAST GET
IN THE VICINITY OF RECORD VALUES. AS TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY DECREASES
AND WE GET CLOSER, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ROOM FOR THESE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS TO INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGE 3) CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY, THE OVERALL STORM TRACK NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF
THE ILN CWA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FLOW WILL BECOME ACTIVE BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH ONE OR TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
BETWEEN THEN AND THE END OF THE WEEK -- LIKELY ONE ON WEDNESDAY AND
ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK, FORCING, AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN PERHAPS THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL. POPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THURSDAY, AND
THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THESE
DETAILS MAY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS, WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
RAIN MAY BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS, BUT VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
MVFR AND THEN IFR LEVELS, AND CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR AND MAYBE
EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WILL SHIFT A BIT, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ONLY ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
AT AROUND 18Z, RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA, AND SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS
AVIATION...HATZOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page