371
FXUS61 KILN 150643
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
143 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN TODAY.
2) FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
3) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
4) CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) RAIN TODAY.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, PASSING OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL REMAIN ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL GET BETWEEN 1/4
AND 3/4 INCH TOTAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2) FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS IN
CENTRAL OHIO. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING AND
OVER HOW MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A
LOT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER TODAY'S RAIN AND WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WHEREVER CLOUDS DIMINISH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.
FOG WILL LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
KEY MESSAGE 3) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST, BEGINNING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. EVEN
AS HEIGHTS GET SUPPRESSED TOWARDS MID WEEK, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT RECORD WARMTH IS
POSSIBLE, BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS, ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MAY BE SIMILAR
ON THURSDAY, AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA, BUT
RECORDS FOR THURSDAY ARE WARMER.
KEY MESSAGE 4) CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
MODEL SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING A SHORT WAVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH AND THAT IS WHERE THE
MAJORITY OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING
TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTING THAT THIS CHANCE IS
INCREASING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS. PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH REMAIN HIGH,
60 TO 90 PERCENT.
IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, A BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL
FORCING, BUT THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ONCE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES, THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION, FINALLY MOVING EAST OF
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH THE PRIMARY QUESTION OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO LIFR AND
VISIBILITIES TO IFR. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS, VISIBILITIES WILL POP BACK
UP TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE FORECAST TO GET BACK TO MVFR. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER
AT SOME SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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