935
FXUS61 KILN 151816
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
116 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOGGY CONDITIONS TODAY, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
3) CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) FOG TODAY/TONIGHT.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE STRATIFORM RAIN
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
PRECIP. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH MINOR IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER IN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, PARTICULARLY SE OF I-71.
MORE IMPACTFUL FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
VISIBILITIES DECREASE BELOW ONE MILE ACROSS OUR CWA, WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY OR LESS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. WHILE THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A SLAM
DUNK SCENARIO FOR FREEZING FOG, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
DEPOSITION ONTO PAVEMENTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ON
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT (IF THEY EVEN OCCUR), THINKING
THAT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST REGION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE UNDERNEATH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. WHILE SOME MODFICATION OF THIS RIDGE
OCCURS MID-WEEK, PERSISTENT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGE 3) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
AS THE H5 RIDGE DAMPENS MID-WEEK, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OUT IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ILN CWA WILL BE PLACED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO
OUR WEST, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
(AIDING IN THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS). SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND BUILD IN SOME INSTABILITY IN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, THUS KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THERMAL
PROFILES COOL, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF PCPN LINGERS,
PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-70.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN HAS CAUSED VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO IFR AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW OR EVEN GET INTO LIFR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RAIN WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 18Z. VISIBILITY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER
THAT BUT CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO SCATTER AFTER 00Z. BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WITH VISIBILITY LIKELY
FALLING TO LIFR EXCEPT AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS WHERE VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER, PERHAPS ONLY MVFR.
OUTLOOK...IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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