652
FXUS61 KILN 160008
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
708 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
3) CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE...
VERY GOOD SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SETTING UP AN IDEAL
SITUATION FOR DENSE FOG. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO WET
GROUND FROM RAIN AND RESIDUAL SNOW MELT, CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY
INTO EARLY EVENING (SO NOT MUCH DRYING), AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS >80 POP FOR <1/4 MILE VISIBILITY CENTERED ALONG
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. ALREADY OBSERVING 1/4 MILE AT ILN. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REGARDING EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THEREFORE - HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THRU 11 AM MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REDUCED VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE STRATIFORM RAIN
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
PRECIP. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH MINOR IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER IN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, PARTICULARLY SE OF I-71.
MORE IMPACTFUL FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
VISIBILITIES DECREASE BELOW ONE MILE ACROSS OUR CWA, WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY OR LESS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. WHILE THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A SLAM
DUNK SCENARIO FOR FREEZING FOG, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
DEPOSITION ONTO PAVEMENTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ON
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT (IF THEY EVEN OCCUR), THINKING
THAT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST REGION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE UNDERNEATH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. WHILE SOME MODFICATION OF THIS RIDGE
OCCURS MID-WEEK, PERSISTENT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGE 3) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
AS THE H5 RIDGE DAMPENS MID-WEEK, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OUT IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ILN CWA WILL BE PLACED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS POTENTIAL. CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO
OUR WEST, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
(AIDING IN THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS). SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND BUILD IN SOME INSTABILITY IN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, THUS KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THERMAL
PROFILES COOL, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF PCPN LINGERS,
PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-70.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS IS SETTING UP AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR DENSE FOG.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WET GROUND FROM RAIN AND RESIDUAL SNOW
MELT, CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING (SO NOT MUCH
DRYING), AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR VSBYS TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS DUE
TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL ALSO LIFT AND
CREATING LIFR CEILINGS.
IMPROVEMENT OF THESE LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SLOW MONDAY MORNING,
BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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