132
FXUS61 KILN 160710
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
210 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK,
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH ISOLATED FREEZING FOG ON
ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
2) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
3) CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) DENSE FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING.
DENSE FOG WILL LIFT LATER IN THE MORNING, AS OPPOSED TO A TYPICAL
SCENARIO WHERE DAYBREAK INTRODUCES MORE RAPID HEATING AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. A MORE OR
LESS SOLID LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO EAT THROUGH. WINDS PICK UP FROM
WEST TO EAST, AND THIS WILL DISSIPATE THE FOG DECK ACCORDINGLY. EVEN
IF THE STRATUS PERSISTS PAST THE 11:00 END TIME OF THE ADVISORY,
SURFACE VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE. THIS IS MORE LIKELY IN OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA - THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY AND NRN KY EAST OF MARYSVILLE.
ATTM, NW CWA REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THIS FOG, THOUGH UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS ARE TO NOTCH DOWN WITH MIST. THIS AREA COULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKER THIS MORNING, BUT THE CURRENT BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
NOT SPLIT HAIRS FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO NOT BE AS PREVALENT HERE. IF AN
UPDATE IS NECESSARY TOWARDS DAYBREAK, THEY COULD BE CUT OUT AT THAT
TIME IF INDICATIONS SHOW A DEFINITIVE BOUNDARY TO DO SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAFFLING AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL DRIVING HAZARD WITH FREEZING ROAD
CONDITIONS ON ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES. PERSONS TRAVELLING IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS SHOULD BE ON GUARD FOR THIS POTENTIAL PITFALL AND
MONITOR THEIR CAR'S THERMOMETER DURING THE COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
AT THIS JUNCTURE, WEDNESDAY STANDS TO SEE HIGHS NEAR RECORDS FOR OUR
BIG 3 METRO AREAS ON THAT DAY (18TH). BOTH DAYTON AND COLUMBUS HAVE
RECORDS AT 66 DEG, WITH CINCY AT 68. MORNING LOWS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 50 WILL ALSO PUT RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS AT RISK. FOR
THESE HIGH MINS, RECORDS ARE: CINCY 53, DAYTON 49, AND CBUS 52.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO PEAK TUES NIGHT AND THEN HEIGHTS FALL
AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHES A VIGOROUS S/W TO THE EAST.
AT THE SURFACE, THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ESE AHEAD OF IT IN THE GTLKS REGION. OUR CWA AND THE OHVLY
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH STRONG SW WIND ADVECTING THESE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM, I SEE THE MAX TEMPS AS
THE HIGH END VALUES AS THE UPPER S/W MOVING E ACROSS THE CWA WILL
HAVE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ITS ORIENTATION WILL BE
IN LINE WITH THE SFC WIND DIRECTION FROM SW-NE, SO DIRECT HEATING OF
THE AIR BEING ADVECTED IN DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY FAVORABLE. THIS
TELLS ME THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME TYPE OF HEDGE TO HAVE TEMPS NOT
QUITE AS HIGH. BEING DAY 3, THIS POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL HAVE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TIME TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IF IT REMAINS IN PLAY
AS I AM CURRENTLY SEEING IT.
KEY MESSAGE 3) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
THE WARM FRONT SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SEE A STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON SW WINDS, BEGINNING TUES NIGHT WITH A 50KT JET
AT 2-4KFT. THIS WILL GET WRUNG OUT CLOSER TO THE WMFNT OVERNIGHT
TUE/EARLY WED. CHANCES WILL OCCUR EVERYWHERE, ESPECIALLY AS THE MID
LEVEL S/W CROSSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN NRN CWA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AS THE NOSE OF THE JET AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25
MPH ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH EARLIER MENTION OF 35 MPH GUSTS SEEMS TO BE
TOO HIGH. MAYBE SOME 20-25 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE MORE IN LINE. WARM
ADVECTION WINDS DO NOT TYPICALLY PRODUCE EXCESSIVE GUSTS AS OPPOSED
TO THOSE PRODUCED BY SINKING MOTION IN COLD AIR. THESE WINDS WILL
PEAK BEFORE NOON, BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CROSS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CWA ON THURS/THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN IN THE LATER AFTERNOON IN
SRN/SW CWA AND LIFT NE IN THE EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS RELATIVE TO A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT THESE TIMES/LOCATIONS. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE WARM FROPA TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. THIS IS MORE OF
AREAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND NOT DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY,
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL PASS TO THE
S, AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EKE NE AND ALONG IT OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SAT. PATTERN IS IN A HIGH POTENTIAL OF CHANGE, ALONG WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF ANY SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL. CHANCE POPS MAY BE A LITTLE
HIGH FOR THE NW 1/2 OF CWA BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ROOM FOR CHANGE
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.
AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF
PCPN LINGERS, PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-70.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW STRATUS FORMING DENSE FOG AREA-WIDE WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS PICK UP FROM W-E, AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DEFINITIVE BACK EDGE TO THE STRATUS AS IT CROSSES
DAY/CVG/LUK TOWARDS NOON, ILN SHORTLY THEREAFTER, AND SLIGHTLY LATER
AT CMH/LCK. HOWEVER THE STRATUS DECIDES TO SHOW ITS BACK EDGE,
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS A LITTLE BEFORE
THESE LOW CLOUDS EXIT TO THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND 25KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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