601
FXUS61 KILN 161832
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCLUDED MENTION OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, AS WELL AS STRONG
STORM POTENTIAL FOR LATE THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
2) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
3) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) FOG GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN LIFTED BASED ON IMPROVING VISIBILITIES
AND OHGO CAMERAS SUPPORTING REDUCED IMPACTS TO ROADS/TRAVEL. HOWEVER,
THE FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA,
WHICH IS KEEPING SOME OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED. SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE, BUT THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS. WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT AND THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINING FAIRLY UNCHANGED, SOME FOG REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS A
LIKELY CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO ONE MILE OR LESS,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE
DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE OR LOWER VISIBILITIES) AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, WHICH MAY WARRANT ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE. FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER QUITE AS LONG INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASED RETURN FLOW THAT WILL HELP BREAK THE DECOUPLED LAYER AND
ENHANCE MIXING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF AN H5 RIDGE THAT EXPANDS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAINING THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET
DURING THE DAYTIME WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER, BUT NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
KEY MESSAGE 3) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
THE H5 RIDGE FLATTENS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL HELP
RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ILN WILL BE FIRMLY
PLANTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLANS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW USHERING IN A WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS, RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 4 OUTLOOK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THAT
ENCOMPASSES PORTIONS OF THE TRISTATE INTO SOUTHWEST OH. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TIMING FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL HERE APPEARS TO BE LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BASED ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE, BUT THIS STILL APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST (WITH
OVERNIGHT TIMING BEING LESS IDEAL). HOWEVER, FAVORABLE KINEMATICS
WILL BE IN PLACE GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES. WHILE NOT A
SLAM DUNK SEVERE SCENARIO, WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY, USHERING IN A COLDER AIR MASS ONCE
AGAIN AND WILL REDUCE PCPN CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE MAY OBSERVE SOME SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR NORTH THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS BEFORE GETTING INTO TOO MANY DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VSBYS GENERALLY IMPROVING AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AND HELP REDUCE
THE FOG. HOWEVER, FOG HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS, KEEPING CIGS IN
IFR/LIFR FOR LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. CONTINUED TO KEEP THESE LOWER
CIGS AROUND FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THESE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT, BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW SLOW THIS WILL OCCUR.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. IFR VSBYS STARTING TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS, BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE AT KCVG/KLUK. ELSEWHERE,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF VSBYS TREND BACK TO LIFR/VLIFR TONIGHT. FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER QUITE AS LONG AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. ALL
SITES LIKELY TO RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND 25KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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