262
FXUS61 KILN 171144
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, EXCEPTING
NORTHERN KY COUNTIES OUTSIDE OF THE CINCY METRO AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER FOGGY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
3) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS, AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) FOG THIS MORNING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10:00 THIS MORNING AND COULD IMPACT THIS MORNING'S COMMUTE. AS
OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY, THIS FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
LATER MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD MIX OUT/BREAK UP WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
OF DAYBREAK. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER 5 MPH WILL ENHANCE MIXING.
A MORE PATCHY FOG, LOCALLY DENSE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD
BE INHIBITED FROM BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO A THICKER LAYER OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, NEARING RECORDS
ON WEDNESDAY.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO PEAK NEAR IL/IN BORDER THIS MORNING,
WITH STEADY HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION FOUND THROUGH THIS EVENING. S/W
ENERGY PUSHING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN INITIATE HEIGHT
FALLS OVERNIGHT THAT LEVEL OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING N/NE OF THE CWA IN THE GTLKS, ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKLY CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MN AT THIS TIME. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT,
ZONAL WSW FLOW WILL KEEP NEAR STEADY HEIGHTS FROM WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURS NIGHT.
UNDERNEATH THIS WILL BE A STRONG ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ESE AHEAD OF IT IN THE GTLKS REGION. OUR CWA AND OHVLY
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WED, WITH STRONG SW WIND ADVECTING THESE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LLJET NOSES INTO THE
REGION, ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY EKE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING, FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE NE CWA FROM WAPAK TO CBUS BUT LOW
CHANCES EXIST REGION WIDE. THEN THE JET CROSSES AND WINDS WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT, BACKING TO THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURS AND INCREASED WINDS
FRI.
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT A FEW DEG COOLER DUE
TO WEAK FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM SW-NE DURING THE AFTERNOON - EAST OF ANOTHER SFC LOW THAT
PIVOTS N THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL HAVE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT DRAPE ESE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA, AND RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH
BETTER IN THE EVENING AND EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR WILL
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT AND FRI, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FRI ONLY RISING ABOUT
10 DEG ABOVE MORNING LOWS YET STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMALS.
WITH THESE WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK LATE DAY
INSOLATION THURS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
LAY OUT SOME HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN LARGER
DISCRETE CELLS.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH IN
SOUTHERN CWA AND SE IN, BUT A MORE RESPECTABLE 20-25 MPH IN OHIO,
WITH AN EXCEPTION IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY S OF CHILLICOTHE. THESE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED EARLY WED, WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRODUCING 25-30 MPH GUSTS, STRONGEST N OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WE MAY OBSERVE SOME SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS OUR NORTH THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
BEFORE GETTING INTO TOO MANY DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AFTER THIS MORNING'S FOG DISSIPATES, CONDITIONS IN THE REGION WILL
BECOME VFR BY NOON AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT UNDER AND BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF A
LLJET MOVING NE THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME LLWS. A LITTLE FURTHER BEHIND
THE JET WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. IF THESE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE LIGHT,
SPORADIC, AND WIDELY SCATTERED - ESSENTIALLY NEGLIGIBLE TO AVIATION.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURS
NIGHT. GUSTS TO 25-30KT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-074-075.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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