216
FXUS61 KILN 171837
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED AN ADDITIONAL MESSAGE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND TRENDS
TO COLDER WEATHER LATER THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED WINDS ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
3) CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH TOMORROW SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS LIMITING
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST,
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND BREAKING CLOUDS SUPPORT WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REACH
THE LOW TO MID 60S, BUT ONLY COOL INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
AND CLOUDS LIMITING TEMPERATURES A BIT, BUT STILL EXPECTING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL
FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COOLDOWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED WINDS ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
OVERALL FORECAST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT POSITIONING WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE RICH
AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY. THE SEVERE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST PROMOTES A FAVORABLE
LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WITH BACKING FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS, WHICH ARE
TO BE EXPECTED NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE CONCERNING
HODOGRAPHS, THE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LIKELY LIMITS
THE ABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW LONG SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING DECREASES OVERALL INSTABILITY. STORMS
WOULD REQUIRE A LONG ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME TO ALLOW FOR ORGANIZATIONS
AND THE RESULTING HAZARDS. CAM GUIDANCE IS ONLY JUST BEGINNING TO
ENTER THE TIME WINDOW, WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ALREADY
ADVERTISED. SO, WHILE THE GENERAL BIG PICTURE POTENTIAL IS THERE,
THE DETAILS WILL BE NEEDED TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE POSSIBLE HAZARDS.
BREEZY ON FRIDAY: AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN INDIANA, WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 3) CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND, WITH JET DYNAMICS FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST. RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION IS FORECAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL IS DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY IF THE
STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY.
THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A FEW DAYS, WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES RETURNING TO THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD, BUT A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LLWS
ALONG WITH THE OF MVFR CIGS. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. WITH SOME OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY, MVFR VIS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG WITH IFR CIGS FROM 10Z TO 17Z. THIS WAS
MENTIONED USING PROB30 GROUPS. CLOUDS BREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FORECAST
TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF, DECREASING INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURS
NIGHT. GUSTS TO 25-30KT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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