456
FXUS61 KILN 181503
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1003 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED WORDING FOR THE SEVERE THREAT ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
RECORDS TO BE SET TODAY.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
OCCUR FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP
CHANCES SAT NIGHT-SUN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A FEW RECORDS
POTENTIALLY BROKEN TODAY.
USING THE 01:00 OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT FCST, IT LOOKS LIKE DAYTON
AND CINCINNATI COULD SEE RECORD HIGH MINS FOR THIS DATE. FOR THIS, IT
WILL ALL COME DOWN TO THE TEMPS RECORDED BETWEEN 23:00 AND MIDNIGHT.
DAYTON NEEDS TO STAY ABOVE 49, AND CINCY ABOVE 53, WHICH BOTH LOOK
TO BE ATTAINABLE. SORRY CBUS, YOUR MIDNIGHT TEMP OF 50 DOESN'T KEEP
YOU IN THE RUNNING AS THE RECORD HIGH MIN IS 52.
AFTER ANY MORNING SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AS
WARMER AIR IS ADVECTED ON SW WIND OF 10-20 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TOUGH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD BREAK UP LATER AND
COULD GET THAT ADDED KICK OF DIRECT HEATING TO PUSH READINGS UP TO
THE MID 60S.
AS FAR AS BREAKING ANY DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE AT DAYTON. CLEARING SKIES LOOK TO BE EARLIEST HERE,
AND THE FORECAST HIGH OF 65 COULD NOSE TO THE RECORD OF 66. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HAMPER RECORDS AT CINCY AND CBUS.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES AND
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURE RISES, BUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GIVEN. READINGS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION, WITH FRIDAY MAX TEMPS
FOUND IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
OCCUR FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH,
PULLING IN A FEW OHIO COUNTIES AND REMOVING A CHUNK OF KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL EXPECTED WEATHER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE, WHICH MAY
INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL S/W ENERGY MOVING ENE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAVORED BEST IN THE LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SITUATED ALONG THE IA/IL BORDER AT THIS TIME.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST PROMOTES A FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WITH BACKING FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS, WHICH ARE
TO BE EXPECTED NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH A LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE CONCERNING HODOGRAPHS, THE LACK OF STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LIKELY LIMITS THE ABILITY FOR NUMEROUS STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
HOW LONG SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERE BEFORE THE COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING DECREASES
OVERALL INSTABILITY. STORMS WOULD REQUIRE A LONG ENOUGH RESIDENCE
TIME TO ALLOW FOR ORGANIZATION AND THE RESULTING HAZARDS (HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES). WHILE THERE ARE SOME CAMS THAT SHOW VERY
LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA (NAM3KM, ARW), THERE IS A PRIMARY
THEME ACROSS SOME OF THE OTHERS. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INITIATE WEST
OF THE AREA ACROSS ILLINOIS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA, SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SURFACE BASED, ROTATING STORMS. THESE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 6 AND 9PM, WEAKENING INTO CENTRAL OHIO BY
10 TO 11PM. WILL UPDATE THIS LATEST THINKING WHEN ALL OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS IN ALONG WITH THE SPC 1730 UTC UPDATE.
BREEZY ON FRIDAY: AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN INDIANA, WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 3) TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK AND DIMINISHING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS WEEKEND, SOME OF WHICH WOULD BE SNOW.
LOWERED THE PRECIP THREAT FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN AND WOULD HAVE CARED TO
ELIMINATE THEM THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUN. VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE
INDICATED AS EQUALLY STRONG S/W ENERGY TRACKING QUICKLY SE DEVELOPS
INTO A DEEP TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW. THIS DRIVE SEEMS TO BE A RESULT OF
EQUALLY STRONG HEIGHT RISES IN AN IMPRESSIVELY BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE WRN U.S. EVEN THOUGH THE RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND INCOMING LOW ARE
THERE, THE ATMOSPHERE IN OUR REGION IS SIMPLY NOT SHOWING ANY
INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE FOR THESE DYNAMICS TO WORK ON. IF PRECIP
WERE TO OCCUR ON SAT NIGHT, IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE SNOW FOR THE NW
1/2 OF CWA AND A MIX IN THE SE. LIKEWISE, IF SAID PRECIP CONTINUED ON
SUN IT WOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH THE INTRUSION OF COLD AIR UNDERNEATH
BUILDING LOW PRESSURE. ATTM, I WOULD BE BEST INCLINED TO KEEP A
THREAT OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN SCIOTO VALLEY/HOCKING HILLS ON SUN. I
SURMISE THAT THE INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER NOTED IS STRICTLY
BASED ON THE RAPID COOLING INDUCED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS LOOKS TO ME TO BE THE CRUX OF DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS PROMINENT FEATURE AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO START
WITH.
THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A FEW DAYS, WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES RETURNING TO THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SFC WINDS WILL GUST TO 25KT THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
TWO EXCEPTIONS AT CVG AND LUK WHERE GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20KT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE MINUSCULE AND QUITE BRIEF.
ANY PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY 16-17Z, EARLIER AT
DAY WHERE 14Z STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID FOR A POINT GOING FORWARD
WITHOUT PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT, WIND BACKS TO SOUTH AND DECREASES TO AROUND 5KT. LOW CLOUD
COVER WILL HAVE SCATTERED OUT IN THE LATE EVENING, BUT THE REGION
SHOULD BE CAPPED WITH A BKN-OVC CI DECK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT.
GUSTS TO 25-30KT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS/MCGINNIS
AVIATION...FRANKS/MCGINNIS
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