710
FXUS61 KILN 182315
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
615 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE KEY MESSAGES AS SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
DECREASE THIS WEEKEND. ADDED A MENTION OF FOG IN THE WARM
TEMPERATURES SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
OCCUR FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PROVIDING A STEADY FLOW OF
WARM AIR TODAY, RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE MET
AT CVG AND DAY TODAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT. THE STRETCH OF WARM AIR CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RECORDS POSSIBLE.
FOG: WITH THE WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE
BEFORE CLEARING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
OCCUR FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SEVERE WEATHER SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT, SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
OCCUR WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. FOR
NOW, THE THREATS INCLUDE SMALL HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OCCURRING BETWEEN 5PM AND 10PM.
DETAILS: UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL SUPPORT BROAD ASCENT, BUT THE
LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AS THEY
DEVELOP. MOST OF THE CAMS THAT DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN THE
PROCESS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THESE
STORMS THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONSIST OF CAPE AROUND
250-750 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 60 KNOTS. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE BLOW RESULTS IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
LACK OF DEEP/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT SOME HAIL SHOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THESE BACKGROUND PARAMETERS.
THERE ARE SOME FAILURE MODES, WHICH IS WHY THIS SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
VERY CONDITIONAL. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS FORM, THE BEST INSTABILITY
MAY ONLY EXIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRENDS DECREASE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, IF UPDRAFTS REMAIN ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES DECREASES. SO WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS AND
CURVED HODOGRAPHS RIGHTLY PROVIDE CONCERN FOR LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACTS, THIS OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY END UP VERY ISOLATED
WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SPC SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK.
BREEZY ON FRIDAY: AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE (SUB 990 MB) TO THE NORTHWEST
PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EFFECTIVE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE. AREA WIDE, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA, WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. ACROSS
OUR WINDIER AREAS, REGULAR GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, CONFIDENCE IS TRENDING TOWARD LOWER CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTEAD, NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT OVERALL, THIS POTENTIAL
HAS DECREASED.
AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST US, A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD
WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY, DROPPING INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND DEVELOPING RADIATIONAL COOLING, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE TAFS DOWNWARD AND ALLOW FOR SOME
IFR TO VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS, MAINLY IN THE 08Z-13Z TIMEFRAME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DEVELOPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 23Z TO 05Z TIMEFRAME.
OUTLOOK...GUSTS TO 25-35KT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...JGL
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