664
FXUS61 KILN 191830
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
130 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THIS AFTERNOON'S SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS OCCUR FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
1) STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LONG AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS... ESPECIALLY NEAR A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TRI- STATE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. MAIN ISSUE HOLDING
BACK A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT WILL BE A LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SOME DOUBT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT REACHES DURING OUR
RELATIVE MAX IN DESTABILIZATION. THE VERY LATEST HRRR RUNS ALONG WITH
LOCAL WOFS WINDOW SIGNAL THE BEST MOISTURE COULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ENTIRELY.
WHERE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, CELL MODE IS LIKELY TO BE
SUPERCELLULAR. LARGE HAIL IS A LOW-END CONCERN, WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THIS
PARAMETER SPACE COULD SUPPORT A STRONGER TORNADO DEPENDING ON
OVERLAP OF ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS.
KEY MESSAGE 2) AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST US,
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LOWEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING
LIGHTER WINDS AND THE LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO PEAK
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
COMPLEX TAF PERIOD IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PERIOD OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
THEN A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING FRIDAY DURING THE DAY.
PERSISTENT STRATUS IS LIKELY TO LIFT TO VFR EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
SOLAR INSOLATION LIFTS CLOUD BASES FOR ALL SITES. INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COULD
CAUSE A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST... BUT WITH LOW COVERAGE WILL DEAL
WITH THIS USING AMENDMENTS.
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO INCREASINGLY
WESTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. EFFICIENT MIXING IS LIKELY TO BRING 30+
KNOT GUSTS DURING THE MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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