983
FXUS61 KILN 192357
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
657 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THIS AFTERNOON'S SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS OCCUR FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
1) STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LONG AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS... ESPECIALLY NEAR A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OUR TRI- STATE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. MAIN ISSUE HOLDING
BACK A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT WILL BE A LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SOME DOUBT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT REACHES DURING OUR
RELATIVE MAX IN DESTABILIZATION. THE VERY LATEST HRRR RUNS ALONG WITH
LOCAL WOFS WINDOW SIGNAL THE BEST MOISTURE COULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ENTIRELY.
WHERE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, CELL MODE IS LIKELY TO BE
SUPERCELLULAR. LARGE HAIL IS A LOW-END CONCERN, WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THIS
PARAMETER SPACE COULD SUPPORT A STRONGER TORNADO DEPENDING ON
OVERLAP OF ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS.
KEY MESSAGE 2) AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST US,
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY. THE LOWEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING
LIGHTER WINDS AND THE LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO PEAK
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
VICINITY OF KDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. UNTIL THEN, MVFR
TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. IN ADDITION, MARGINAL LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE HEADING INTO FRIDAY. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JGL
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