454
FXUS61 KILN 200632
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPIRED TORNADO WATCH AND ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS TODAY. BUMPED UP SNOW POTENTIAL WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OCCUR TODAY
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
2) SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .
DISCUSSION
1) MID LEVEL AND DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO TRACK ENE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT WITH VALUES ABOVE
1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN
HAS FALLEN FROM DAYTON TO COLUMBUS WITH A MAX OF 3 INCHES PLUS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF GREENE, MADISON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES. SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER TRACKING ACROSS THIS AREA WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND END WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM.
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONT PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
STRONG CAA. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TECHNIQUE HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS ABOVE NBM TODAY. EXPECT WIND GUST
OF 40-45 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH AND 35-40 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS IS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA - SO WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR THIS THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THRU THE AREA EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. AS STRONG CAA DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
FAVORABLE FLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD WPC QPF AND SNOW - WITH A TOTAL SNOW
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 2 INCHES OR MORE OVER THE
NORTHEAST TO LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTHWEST. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND THE LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20S SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. UNTIL
THEN, MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. IN ADDITION, MARGINAL LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR FOR A PERIOD AT
KDAY/KCMH AND KLCK WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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