195
FXUS61 KILN 201036
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
536 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. BUMPED UP WIND
GUSTS TODAY. BUMPED UP SNOW POTENTIAL WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS OCCUR TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
2) SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .
DISCUSSION
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG FRONT PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
STRONG CAA. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TECHNIQUE HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS ABOVE NBM TODAY. EXPECT WIND GUST
OF 45-50 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH AND 35-40 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE
WINDS LOOK TO BE AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 35 TO 40 MPH - BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA - SO HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU THE AREA EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AS STRONG CAA DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPING OFF THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY. HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD WPC QPF AND SNOW - WITH A TOTAL SNOW FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RANGING FROM 2 INCHES OR MORE OVER
THE NORTHEAST TO LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTHWEST. WILL MENTION THIS
THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND THE LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20S SOUTH.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNRISE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY AND
INCREASE THIS MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAYTIME. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR FOR A PERIOD AT KDAY/KCMH
AND KLCK WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SNOW.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051-052.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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