293
FXUS61 KILN 210650
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
2) SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE AHEAD OF DIGGING MID LEVEL TROF. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING ILN/S SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71 BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. BOUNDARY
LAYER IS INITIALLY WARM OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST - SO ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE MIXED WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION FROM THIS PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MID LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CARVE OUT A TROF/LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THRU THE AREA EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
AS STRONG CAA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT DEVELOP OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EARLY MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD WPC QPF AND SNOW - WITH A TOTAL
SNOW FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY RANGING FROM 2 INCHES OR
MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
THE COLDEST PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/..
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVELS ARE DRY SO ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED.
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE THESE CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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