596
FXUS61 KILN 211901
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED A DISCUSSION
REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1)SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY MONDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2)NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PIVOTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND SEVERAL MPING REPORTS SHOWING
SOME SNOW OR RAIN FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH THE EARLY LATER THIS EVENING. DRY AIR AND ANTECEDENT
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW
THAT DOES FALL.
LATER TONIGHT, ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST INCREASES
BROAD SCALE ASCENT AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS AND DEEPENS OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL HELP TO FORM A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THROUGHOUT THE MID-MORNING, THIS BAND OF SNOW
MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, AND THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS WHERE
SNOW ONSETS THE EARLIEST.
THE VORT-MAX PIVOTS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY FAVORING MORE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SATURATION INTO THE DGZ.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST, ENHANCING WINDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS SNOW CONTINUES,
COLDER AIR AND WINDS MAY HELP PROVIDE WORSENING ROAD CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S MONDAY
MORNING SUPPORT LINGERING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IF SNOW IS MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LOCAL SNOWFALL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO USE WPC QPF WITH THE NBM TOO LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THEREFORE REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS SHIFTS.
THE COLDEST PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN. IF ENOUGH COLD AIR
IS PRESENT, THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LOCAL AREA MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR
SNOW. OTHERWISE, ATTENTION MAY BE FOCUSED ON THE PERIOD OF RAINFALL
IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE PWATS ARE 200-300% ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CIGS HAVE RECEDED TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM LOCAL TAF SITES. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, BUT THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW.
OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RESTRICTIONS RESUME BETWEEN
10-12Z SUNDAY MORNING. PERIOD OF SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CIGS DROPPING TO LOW-END MVFR. MVFR AND IFR
VIS OCCUR IN SNOW WITH IFR MENTIONS CURRENTLY IN PROB30.
ADDITIONALLY, TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF, NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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