891
FXUS61 KILN 220738
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
238 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADJUSTED SNOW TODAY INTO
MONDAY A LITTLE HIGHER TOWARD THE WPC SOLUTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1)SNOW POTENTIAL INTO EARLY MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2)NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHARP LOW. BROAD SCALE ASCENT TO
DEVELOP AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT A BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY DAYBREAK.
AS THE MID LEVEL TROF AND VORT-MAX PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH SATURATION INTO THE DGZ. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST, WHICH WILL ENHANCE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS
OVER NBM SOLUTION WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH LIKELY.
HAVE CONTINUED TO USE WPC QPF WITH THE NBM TOO LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS SHIFTS WITH TOTALS THRU MONDAY MORNING RANGING FROM 2
INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE OVER CENTRAL OHIO TO TO LESS THAN AN INCH
SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO PRODUCT AND ISSUE AN SPS.
THEE COLDEST PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRACK DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN. IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS
PRESENT, THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LOCAL AREA MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH PWATS OF 200-300
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING
PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 0.75 INCHES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AS WELL.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
WILL START OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE TO 25
TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
WITH SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page