859
FXUS61 KILN 230007
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
707 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1)SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
2)NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVES MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS EAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MOST ROBUST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT TONIGHT. SOLAR INSOLATION WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN DUE TO MELTING BETWEEN THE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
LATEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO BRING
A SURGE IN DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY.
PWATS APPROACH AN INCH, WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE A RATHER WET DAY.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP A RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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