454
FXUS61 KILN 230706
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
206 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1)SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
2)NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IMPACTS THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHERLY FLOW. IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO DROP THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE FAVORABLE DGZ WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED WITH FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES. NBM MODEL TENDS TO STRUGGLE
ENDING SNOW SHOWERS TOO SOON IN THESE SITUATIONS. THEREFORE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL THRU THE MORNING. HREF
SHOWS 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A HALF INCH OR MORE OF SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH WITH THIS BEST POTENTIAL
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
- SLICK SPOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ALSO, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. HAVE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THIS MORNINGS COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION AT MID WEEK. LATEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BRING A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO BRING A SURGE IN
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL LARGE
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. THIS
SOUTHERN TREND ALLOWS FOR MORE SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70
WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. NBM INDICATES
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 3 INCHES ACROSS ILN/S
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE PWATS INCREASE THE LATEST SOLUTIONS
HAVE LESS OF AN ANOMALY WITH VALUES 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL APPROACHING
AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN KY AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO DROP THRU
THE AREA THIS MORNING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE SATURATED
LAYER IN THE FAVORABLE DGZ WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED WITH FLOW OFF THE GREAT
LAKES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ESPECIALLY AT KCMH
AND KLCK. SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE THRU THE MORNING AND
TAPPER OFF BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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