353
FXUS61 KILN 231755
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1255 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
KEY MESSAGES
1)BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
2)NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE AREA FOR MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL END THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST. DECREASING CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY MORNING. COLD CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2) BOTH EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE
REGION MIDWEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY BRING STEADY RAIN TO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION LIFTING
NORTH TO SOME DEGREE OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS UNCERTAIN, ALONG WITH VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
DURING THIS PRECIP. AN INITIAL LOOK AT 12KM NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DISTINCT WARM NOSE ALOFT AND PERHAPS AN INITIAL PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS
(DETERMINISTIC) KEEPS THE PROFILE BELOW FREEZING WITH ONLY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY. FOR NOW, HAVE
LIMITED THE GRIDS TO RAIN AND SNOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS ON FREEZING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. LATE IN THE CVG EXTENDED TAF, A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HAVE ADDED SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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