376
FXUS61 KILN 241752
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1252 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS DOWNWARD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1)CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT, SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH, MAINLY
TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PCPN WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR RAIN VS SNOW, WITH PTYPE TRENDING MORE TOWARD SNOW IN OUR
NORTHEAST AND RAIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST. ANY QPF VALUES WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THOUGH AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING, DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PROBLEMS.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS WITH TIMING/STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL NAM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND GENERATES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN, WHILE MOST OF THE CAMS ALSO APPEAR FAIRLY WEAK AND HAVE TRENDED
SOMEWHAT FARTHER SOUTH, BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH AND A
BIT STRONGER. WILL GENERALLY TAKE A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS, AND
TREND TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH.
PTYPE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
SNOW IN OUR NORTH, TRENDING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO RAIN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
BASED ON THE FORECAST TRENDS, HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF SNOW
SOUTHWARD AND BACKED OFF ON AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70 AND NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER, BUT THINK ANY ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR
LESS.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOME SPOTTY LINGERING MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO SHOULD IMPROVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PRIMARILY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME
LLWS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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