198
FXUS61 KILN 242300
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
600 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS DOWNWARD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1)CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT, SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH, MAINLY
TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS PCPN WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL
FOR RAIN VS SNOW, WITH PTYPE TRENDING MORE TOWARD SNOW IN OUR
NORTHEAST AND RAIN IN OUR SOUTHWEST. ANY QPF VALUES WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THOUGH AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING, DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PROBLEMS.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS WITH TIMING/STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL NAM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND GENERATES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PCPN, WHILE MOST OF THE CAMS ALSO APPEAR FAIRLY WEAK AND HAVE TRENDED
SOMEWHAT FARTHER SOUTH, BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH AND A
BIT STRONGER. WILL GENERALLY TAKE A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS, AND
TREND TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH.
PTYPE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
SNOW IN OUR NORTH, TRENDING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO RAIN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS BUT
BASED ON THE FORECAST TRENDS, HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF SNOW
SOUTHWARD AND BACKED OFF ON AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70 AND NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER, BUT THINK ANY ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR
LESS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONT, WHICH
WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z. ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PCPN,
WITH SN EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD AT KCMH/KLCK, WITH A
MIX OF RA/SN FAVORED FOR SW TERMINALS. THE SN WILL BRING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS TO KCMH/KLCK, WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT THESE SITES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE PCPN ENDS.
THE PCPN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS, DEPENDING ON
THE INTENSITY AND P-TYPE AT EACH LOCATION. BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z AS SKIES SCATTER OUT FROM W TO E
INTO LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS GOING TO BE THE EXPECTATION FOR SW LLWS
ON THE ORDER OF 45-55KTS BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z-10Z, WITH STRONGEST AND
MOST PROLONGED LLWS EXPECTED FOR SW SITES OF KCVG/KLUK.
ADDITIONALLY, SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30KTS, WILL
EVOLVE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BEFORE DECREASING BRIEFLY BETWEEN
10Z-15Z. WINDS WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE W AT 15-20KTS, WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KTS, ONCE AGAIN PAST 15Z UNTIL SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...
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