518
FXUS61 KILN 250717
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1)CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS MORNING AS IT PIVOTS THRU
THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW NORTH OF I-70. THIS LIGHT PCPN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS PCPN AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO WHERE
THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR A P-TYPE OF SNOW PRIOR TO
RUSH HOUR. METRO ROAD MODEL INDICATES ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S SO DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING, DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TN VALLEYS THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE MOVING IN
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
18Z THURSDAY.
MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED BUT A GENERAL
SOUTHWARD TREND CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BEING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUN
INDICATING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. GEFS ONLY GIVES A
30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOWS ONLY A VERY SPOTTY 10 TO 20
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70,
AND MOST LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS MORNING AS IT PIVOTS THRU
THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH EARLY WITH A P-TYPE OF RAIN
FAVORED AS IT HEADS FARTHER SOUTH.
THE PCPN WILL BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TO KCMH/KLCK, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE PCPN ENDS.
THE PCPN MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AS CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.
A PERIOD OF LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 45-55KTS IS EXPECTED THRU 10Z
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS, WILL
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BEFORE DECREASING BRIEFLY BETWEEN
10Z-15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AT 15-20KTS, WITH GUSTS OF
25-30KTS, AFTER 15Z UNTIL SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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