399
FXUS61 KILN 251757
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTH FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT
2) POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THIS BEING LESS THAN 24 HOURS OUT,
THERE STILL REMAINS AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS
WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TIMING, PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. THERE
DOES AT LEAST SEEM TO BE SOME CONSENSUS IN THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN TO BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS SO HAVE TRENDED POPS IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER, THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HELP DETERMINE PTYPE AND ANY SNOW AMOUNTS.
BASED ON MODEL BLENDS, IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND MORE OF A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE SOUTH. A COUPLE OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND THE LATEST GFS ARE
STILL SHOWING SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN OF AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, THE NAM, AND A COUPLE OTHER HI-RES MODELS HAVE LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW OR ARE MOSTLY DRY. THIS ALL MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST -- BUT GIVEN SOME OF THE "HIGHER END" POTENTIAL AND THE
FACT THAT THIS WILL BE MOVING IN TOWARD THE MORNING RUSH, AM
HESITANT TO GO AS LOW AS WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE NBM. WILL
THEREFORE NUDGE POPS AND QPF UP SOMEWHAT (CLOSER TO WHAT IS SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF, WHICH HAS TRENDED TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTH). WILL ALSO ADD SOME CONDITIONAL WORDING TO
THE HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE WAVE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR MODELS TO FURTHER RESOLVE THIS BUT AS OF
NOW, THERE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING
CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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