392
FXUS61 KILN 260457
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1157 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTH FOR LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT
2) POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THIS BEING LESS THAN 24 HOURS OUT,
THERE STILL REMAINS AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS
WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF TIMING, PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. THERE
DOES AT LEAST SEEM TO BE SOME CONSENSUS IN THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN TO BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS SO HAVE TRENDED POPS IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER, THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO HELP DETERMINE PTYPE AND ANY SNOW AMOUNTS.
BASED ON MODEL BLENDS, IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND MORE OF A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
THE SOUTH. A COUPLE OF THE HI-RES MODELS AND THE LATEST GFS ARE
STILL SHOWING SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN OF AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, THE NAM, AND A COUPLE OTHER HI-RES MODELS HAVE LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW OR ARE MOSTLY DRY. THIS ALL MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST -- BUT GIVEN SOME OF THE "HIGHER END" POTENTIAL AND THE
FACT THAT THIS WILL BE MOVING IN TOWARD THE MORNING RUSH, AM
HESITANT TO GO AS LOW AS WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE NBM. WILL
THEREFORE NUDGE POPS AND QPF UP SOMEWHAT (CLOSER TO WHAT IS SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF, WHICH HAS TRENDED TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTH). WILL ALSO ADD SOME CONDITIONAL WORDING TO
THE HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE WAVE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR MODELS TO FURTHER RESOLVE THIS BUT AS OF
NOW, THERE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A QUICK CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING FOR SOME OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT
KCVG/KLUK, WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SNOW,
AND SOME REGULAR RAIN MIXING IN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR KILN/KDAY,
SOME VERY BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 14Z-15Z, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS, WITH THE
DIRECTIONS CHANGING SEVERAL TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
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