227
FXUS61 KILN 260627
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
127 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
2) POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE
IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER ILLINOIS, AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST AREA
DURING THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME. SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CURRENTLY OVER
INDIANA ARE LIKELY VIRGA, WITH SATURATION STILL UNDERWAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND. WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING, PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS IN
THE ILN CWA MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, WITH SNOW FAVORED IN A
SWATH FROM EASTERN INDIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO, AND RAIN FAVORED
FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE,
WITH A MIX OF SOLUTIONS PRODUCING SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL, AND
SOLUTIONS PRODUCING ALMOST NOTHING OF CONCERN. OVERALL MODEL
AGREEMENT IS A LITTLE BETTER NOW, SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL INDEED BE A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW, BUT ALSO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT -- UNDER AN INCH EVEN AT
THE HIGHER END, AND PERHAPS WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO GRASSY
OR ELEVATED SURFACES GIVEN A WARM STARTING POINT FOR ROAD AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
ONE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH FOR IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT FOG MAY OCCUR -- CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS -- THOUGH MOISTURE IS A LIMITING FACTOR. CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT SOMETHING
TO CONSIDER FOR LATER.
KEY MESSAGE 2) POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SUBTLE H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THERMAL
PROFILES EARLY MONDAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME WINTRY-MIX MAY
DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OH INTO NORTHERN KY.
SNOW WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MIXING ZONE.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL GREATER THAN AN INCH WOULD BE FOR THE COUNTIES
BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. STILL PLENTY OF TIME
HOWEVER FOR THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO CHANGE, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE
PRECIP TYPE, PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS,
THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONTINUE MENTIONING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A QUICK CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING FOR SOME OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT
KCVG/KLUK, WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SNOW,
AND SOME REGULAR RAIN MIXING IN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR KILN/KDAY,
SOME VERY BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 14Z-15Z, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS, WITH THE
DIRECTIONS CHANGING SEVERAL TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS/
AVIATION...HATZOS
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