246
FXUS61 KILN 271047
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
547 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
2) POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY/MONDAY.
3) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) SOME FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
SOME PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
TOWARD MORNING. HOWEVER, PARTICULARLY FOR SHELTERED AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS, THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG IS RATHER
FAVORABLE. ALREADY SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF VALLEY FOG ON NIGHT TIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ILN CWA (AND
KPMH, IN A KNOWN PRONE LOCATION, IS AT M1/4SM). WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD, WHICH MAY PROMPT A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AT SOME POINT, OR IF IT REMAINS MOSTLY LIMITED TO
VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY, WITH SOME 20-25 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE -- AND WARM ADVECTION
BRINGING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2) POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY/MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GENERALLY POOR WITH REGARDS TO TWO POTENTIAL
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE UPCOMING DAYS -- ONE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, AND ONE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SUITE IS SUGGESTING THE SUNDAY MORNING
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY WEAK, AND SOME ARE DRY ENTIRELY. HOWEVER, THE GFS
HAS BEEN A MORE AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER, SUGGESTING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
A DRIER SOLUTION, WITH SOME PRECIPITATION VERY MUCH POSSIBLE -- AND
EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL OHIO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION -- BUT MUCH LOWER THAN GFS PROJECTIONS.
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN GETTING SOME PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY MORNING, AS A MORE WELL-ESTABLISHED
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. CURRENT RUNS, WITH DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS, SUGGEST
THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE ILN CWA -- BUT WITH A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING, THE P-TYPE FORECAST REMAINS MUCH
LOWER IN CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD ABSOLUTELY BE NOTED THAT AN AREA OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION (SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN) COULD OCCUR IN BETWEEN.
STILL SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES, BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW
DOES LOOK POSSIBLE, WITH THE LOCATION DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RA/SN
TRANSITION ZONE SETS UP.
KEY MESSAGE 3) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.
A PRONOUNCED SHIFT IN THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH, DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY / SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT FEED OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH, THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS AS WELL. IT IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
ZONE OF HIGHER THETA-E THAT REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S AND THEN INTO
THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE EPISODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN OVER THE ILN CWA AS WELL. AS THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN
APPEARS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE, SPEAKING IN A BROAD
SENSE, THE RISK FOR FLOODING MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE GOING INTO THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOG WILL IMPACT KILN/KCVG (GENERALLY MVFR) AND KLUK (MVFR TO IFR)
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OUT OF THE SSW, WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER,
SOME LLWS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND THIS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS
AVIATION...HATZOS
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